The regular-season finale has arrived, six months after Michigan State declared it would move its final home game to Detroit and advance it by one day.
The Land Grant Trophy is at stake when the Spartans (4-7, 2-6 Big Ten) take on No. 11 Penn State (9-2, 6-2) at Ford Field on Friday (7:30 p.m., NBC).
Here are five things to look out for during the match, along with a projected score:
A Fight to the finish
The Spartans faced six straight losses, the suspension and firing of their head coach for cause in September, and players leaving for the transfer market. However, they resisted giving up and went on to win two of their last three games, including a thrilling comeback against Indiana last week, under interim coach Harlon Barnett.
This team’s final game will be on Friday night, barring a huge upset against Penn State and a bowl bid at 5-7 if enough teams don’t qualify for all the available spots. While the Nittany Lions are hoping to earn a bowl spot for the New Year’s Six, the Spartans want to give Barnett a victory in what will probably be his last game as head coach of his alma institution.
This will be Michigan State’s most recent matchup with a ranked opponent. The team has one of the hardest schedules in the country. The Spartans have lost all three games against unblemished teams vying for a berth in the College Football Playoffs—Washington, Michigan, and Ohio State—by a total score of 128-10. This season, the Spartans are 0-3 versus teams ranked in the top 10. Against the Nittany Lions, who have lost by single digits to the Buckeyes and Wolverines, we’ll see if Michigan State can turn the tide and put on a competitive show.
Facing top-five defense
Michigan State has already played Ohio State and Michigan, two teams that are among the top five in the country for overall defense. In the 100-year history of Spartan Stadium, the Wolverines defeated the Spartans 49-0, handily winning the match, while Michigan State lost 38-3 against Ohio State, managing only a field goal. In both games, the Spartans’ total offensive yardage was a meager 182 yards.
Penn State hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game this season and is ranked No. 2 in the nation in both total defense (238.7) and scoring defense (12.5). The Nittany Lions boast NFL quality at every level of defense, with cornerback Kalen King, a native of Detroit who was named an All-American last season, and ends Adisa Isaac (13.5 tackles for a loss and 6.5 sacks) and Chop Robinson (four sacks).
Michigan State has been restricted to single digits in points three times and shut out once, ranking 118th in the country in total offense (310.8) and 125th in scoring (17.4). Last week, the Spartans defeated Indiana 24–21, thanks in large part to career-high passes from Katin Houser, who completed 25–for–39 for 279 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Michigan State is battling with a number of injuries going into the final game of the schedule, and they picked up additional ones last week against Indiana on the offensive end of the ball. Nick Samac, the starting center, was carried off the field in the first quarter due to a lower leg injury and will not be available on Friday. For an undisclosed reason, starting running back Nathan Carter slumped to the field in the third quarter; he did not return to play and is doubtful against the Nittany Lions. Tre Mosley and Jaron Glover, two of the starting receivers for the Spartans, have also been sidelined.
Encore Performance for Maliq Carr
Maliq Carr is currently in his third season with the Spartans and had a huge game to finally break through. In the victory over Indiana last week, the redshirt junior tight end recorded a career-high seven grabs for 119 yards and two touchdowns. Since Dion Simms recorded 122 receiving yards in a 2012 victory over Eastern Michigan, that was the highest receiving yardage for a tight end at Michigan State.
Carr had a highlight-reel performance to end the game, forcing a fumble on an Indiana interception return as well. With 1:19 remaining in the game, he hauled in a reception from Houser, took a hard hit, and managed to stay upright for a 36-yard touchdown that won the game. He was chosen as the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week as a result of his effort.
At 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, Carr has NFL size and athleticism and the ability to be a major mismatch when healthy and locked in. Now closing out his fourth year in college after spending one season at Purdue, Carr could be heading into his final game with the Spartans before declaring for the draft. Another big game against a strong defense would only boost his stock.
Turnover
At 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, Carr possesses NFL size and quickness, and when healthy and focused, he can be a serious mismatch. Carr, who played one season at Purdue before returning to college to finish his fourth year, might be playing his final game with the Spartans before filing to enter the draft. Just one more big game against a formidable defense would raise his profile.
Only twice this season has Michigan State won a game despite losing by a turnover margin—the other instance occurring on September 9 against FBS program Richmond. That was last week’s triumph at Indiana. That should come as no surprise, and the Spartans have very little room for error. In terms of turnover margin, Penn State leads the nation with plus-18, while Michigan State is tying for 104th at minus-5. Last week, the Nittany Lions took advantage of three Rutgers turnovers to score 17 points.
The Spartans could require a few more possessions if they hope to have a chance on Friday night. They cannot afford to give up the ball. Although the Nittany Lions are 74th in the country in total offense (373.3), coach James Franklin sacked offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich following a loss to Michigan earlier this month. Penn State is more than twice as many points as Michigan State (36.7 to 17.4).
Ford Field Atmosphere
After defeating Florida Atlantic 30–17 in 2010, this Friday will be the Spartans’ second game at Ford Field and the inaugural Black Friday game for the program. The chance to play in an NFL stadium in a primetime showdown has often filled Michigan State players with excitement.
Reactions from supporters were varied when athletic director Alan Haller announced in May that the Spartans would be playing in Detroit instead of East Lansing. It will be interesting to see how big and which side the audience is rooting for during the game. Several times recently, sparse crowds witnessed home finales at Spartan Stadium under the unfavorable weather when students were on Thanksgiving break. However, the fact that the game is being played in downtown Detroit and in a climate-controlled environment may lure a sizable crowd to the stadium, which has 65,000 seats.
Prediction
It’s hard to imagine Michigan State’s inability to consistently move the ball and produce points against Power Five opponents would change in the championship game against yet another formidable defense. For its tenth victory of the season, Penn State will contain the Spartans and gain the upper hand in the second half.Michigan State 10, Penn State 34
