The Purdue Boilermakers will host the Michigan Wolverines at Mackey Arena after two convincing victories away from home. Zach Edey, who averages 31.5 points and 16 rebounds per game this season, helped the Boilers defeat the Indiana Hoosiers and Iowa Hawkeyes by an average of 17.5 points on the road, showcasing their supremacy. Even though Edey has excelled the last two seasons, his performance in the last three games—during which he has averaged 31 and 17.5 points—may be his finest thus far. Once more, he will be the centre of attention for a Michigan team that is going to be without one of its most crucial players this season
In Juwan Howard’s fifth season as head coach of his alma institution, Michigan comes into this game with a dismal 7-11 record. Compared to his past teams, who averaged 31.75 victories a season before this one, this is a far cry. The standout guard Dug McDaniel will not play for Michigan because, according to Michigan Athletics, he is serving an academic suspension that prevents him from travelling to road games. Senior forward Tray Jackson, who suffered a concussion and a nasal fracture that may need surgery during the Penn State game, may also be out for the Wolverines.
McDaniel, a 5’11 sophomore guard, averaged 17.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists,.9 steals, and a 37.4% shooting percentage from outside the arc this season. He is a vital component of Michigan’s success. It would be intriguing to observe how they do without their main ball handler, who is serving his second of six away game suspensions (lost against Maryland 64-57).
I don’t think Michigan has a strong enough primary ball handler to handle the ball for 40 minutes of play without Dug McDaniel. Yes, Purdue and many other programmes operate in the same environment, but Purdue has one or two more players who can perform at a high level for a short while throughout each game. Does Michigan, one may ask?
Since McDaniel is by far the main ball handler and has averaged 36.2 minutes per game, who would take up that role in his absence? Could it be Jaelin Llewellyn, a former Purdue target? The transfer senior who is still recovering from a serious knee operation might be the one to take on this responsibility. Although he only plays 11.5 minutes per game on average, that could change significantly against the Boilers. Senior guard Nimari Burnett, who transferred to Michigan this past season from Texas Tech and Alabama, might also be the one to take it on. Despite only averaging 1.5 mistakes per game and playing 31.8 minutes per game, he hasn’t been the main ball handler for this season’s Wolverines.
Lance Jones, Braden Smith, and Cam Heide will likely put up a fight for whoever Michigan chooses to start tonight in an attempt to steal the ball and deflect it so the Boilers can have a chance to make a move. Matt Painter has made it his main focus this season, and the Boilers have occasionally increased their pressure when a rival team has a guard with poor handling skills who is bringing the ball up.
If Michigan’s primary guard tonight is affected by the pressure of Mackey Arena and the absence of one of the B1G’s finest players, look for Jones to scent blood in the water. Getting seven steals and turning Michigan over at least fourteen times would make it very difficult for the visitors to pull off an upset.
According to Kenpom, the Wolverines are ranked 79th. Michigan ranks 139th out of the 100 teams in the top 100, which puts them second to last in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. In the top 100 on Kenpom, only Boston College’s 148th position (104.1) is worse. That is hardly encouraging for a club that is visiting Mackey Arena. Comparatively speaking, that places them slightly ahead of Morehead State (144th) and just below Samford (138th), against whom Purdue played in the season’s opening game. If Purdue’s 98 against Samford and 87 against Morehead State are any indication of the difficult road Michigan faces, it is unlikely to have a good outcome.
After a little lull to begin the 2024 season, the Boilers have appeared effective and efficient on the offensive end. The Boiler point guard has only scored 20 points in the last three games combined, and he hasn’t hit double digits in that same time frame, despite his shooting struggles. To make up for those offensive shortcomings, he has averaged 9.7 assists, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.7 turnovers per game over the past three games. With Lance Jones emerging as a more reliable and effective scoring threat, Purdue’s offence takes a quantum leap forward if Smith can turn around the team’s offensive problems. Now that four different players are averaging double digit points, the Boilers may rejoice per game.
Purdue’s season average is 85.1 points per game; if they can reach that level tonight against a club that has only averaged 70.5 points per game in their previous six B1G contests, Purdue ought to win.
Should Edey manage to secure another thirty and ten nights, it will elevate him to an elite status among Purdue and B1G legends alike. He now joins Terry Dischinger as the only Boilermaker to record three consecutive 30 and 10 games against B1G opponents, despite the fact that my statistics are incomplete (Chris Foreman, Purdue Men’s Basketball). With 12 career games completed, he already leads the B1G in 30 and 10. He also has 29 games where he has gone for 20 and 10, which is the most for a B1G player in the previous 15 years.
With their perimeter spacing, Purdue has done a great job of giving Edey better looks with quicker post entry passes and maintaining ball movement to thwart easy double teams. In the past few games, Edey has also shown a little more of a downhill threat off pick and roll as Braden Smith has attempted to attack more into the paint and has improved his ability to stay upright.
Tarris Reed is the only player on Michigan who is taller than 6’10, but he is just 0-1 on the season and doesn’t pose much of a threat behind the arc. Michigan lacks size and height in general. At 6’8 and 230 pounds, Will Tschetter is a wide-bodied front-court player who shoots 64% from behind the arc on 17–27 shots. That might be Michigan’s strategy to exploit Edey defensively, but the amount of ground they would have to give up might be too great in the long run.
Ultimately, Purdue needs to keep making outside jumpers and entering the paint through pick and rolls in order to defeat many of these double and triple teams. In a game where the opposition is so outmatched inside, Edey’s best scoring opportunities occasionally come from getting solid shots on the rim that he can rebound and put back using his intimidating length.
To dispel what many of you are probably thinking right away, let me say this: “But Braden is still making an impact on the game without scoring.” Yes, it is amazing that he is averaging close to 10 assists per game and fewer than 3 turnovers in the same period of time. The truth is that Purdue’s ceiling is greatly increased when Smith scores in double figures and consistently makes three-pointers.
While staying on two feet to locate cutters and dives heading towards the basket, most notably Zach Edey, Smith did an excellent job of continuing to look to attack deep into the paint against Iowa. However, Smith is most effective when his mid-range jump jumper is falling and he is a lethal three-point shooter when opponents are going under a ball screen. When Smith is looking to score, his versatility as a scorer, facilitator, and defensive manipulator makes him possibly the finest player in the B1G.
It’s not a confidence problem; rather, it’s probably just a mid-season slump that can be overcome with more time spent in the gym and controlled but aggressive play. Smith is dangerous if he can reach double digits and keep up those other stats.
The Tennessee transfer forward, who played for the Volunteers for the first four seasons, has developed during his career and is now Michigan Wolverines’ top scorer. The goal is to create mismatches by using him in post ups and as an on-ball screener, but having players at that size who can matchup and defend those post ups well—Gillis, Furst, TKR, and Heide—is a benefit.
Given that this is McDaniel’s second suspension for playing away from Ann Arbour, there is some sense of what Michigan will try to accomplish. In the last one, UM was humiliated by Maryland and didn’t look good. Conversely, Purdue might have had the best week within the B1G league thus far this year, winning decisively at Iowa and Indiana. Nothing less than the best from the Boilers tonight in front of their home fans.
