Let’s take a close look at the Braves’ position in the standings with four weeks remaining after they lost three of four games in a pivotal series this past weekend in Philadelphia.
When the season opened in Philadelphia back in March, the Atlanta Braves were on top of the world. Their roster looked like a juggernaut, filled with loads of established stars and some risky but exciting high-ceiling players as well.
Entering the season, FanGraphs projected the Braves for 98.1 wins, 4 more than the next best team in the Dodgers. The Braves were given an 88.8 percent chance to win the NL East for a seventh-consecutive season, and a 98.3 percent chance overall to make the playoffs.
Now? The Braves are in a position that you and I likely couldn’t have imagined five months ago. They are 74-63, which is on pace for just 87 wins – worse than the Kansas City Royals, a team that lost 106 games just a year ago. They have a one-game lead on the final wild card spot and are a full 7 games back in the division.
On the one hand, it’s unfathomable to see the Braves fighting for their playoff lives this late in the season. After all, this team was projected to be far and away the best in baseball. They surpassed 100 wins in each of the previous two regular seasons and seemed likely to do so again without much difficulty.
However, considering everything they’ve been through, it’s amazing that the Braves are still in position to make the playoffs as September approaches.
They will have lost about one-third of their preseason projected WAR to injuries if they remain healthy for the remainder of the season.
Along with serious underperformance from what appeared to be a good core of role players (Adam Duvall, Orlando Arcia, Jarred Kelenic, etc.), they have also had to put up with underperformance from seasoned, trustworthy All-Stars like Matt Olson and Sean Murphy.
And if that wasn’t enough, according to certain metrics, the Braves are the least fortunate team in baseball in terms of the correlation between their inputs and outputs.
